WorldServe Team
Every project is based on a “theory of change” – a set of assumptions, risks and external factors that describes how and why the project is intended to work. This theory connects the project’s activities with its expected outcome. It is inherent in a good project description and is often based on knowledge and experience of the project design team, research, evaluations, best practices and lessons learned.
A theory of change explains how a project is expected to produce its results. The theory typically starts out with a sequence of events and results (outputs & immediate outcomes, sometimes intermediate outcomes and ultimate outcomes) that are expected to occur owing to the project. This is commonly referred to as the “program logic” or “logic model.” However, the theory of change goes further by outlining the mechanisms of change, as well as the assumptions, risks and context that support or hinder the theory from being manifested as observed outcomes.
Assumptions are the conscious and unconscious beliefs we each have about how the world works. From the perspective of the design team, assumptions constitute beliefs (validated or otherwise) about existing conditions that may affect the achievement of outcomes and about why each level will lead to the next. In the context of the theory of change and logic model, assumptions are the necessary conditions that must exist if the relationships in the theory of change are to behave as expected. Accordingly, care should be taken to make explicit the important assumptions upon which the internal logic of the theory of change is based.
Assumptions can be difficult to identify, as they are often taken for granted or are linked to deeply held convictions. Participatory exercises with a wide variety of local and non-local stakeholders are a good way of uncovering assumptions. This is because assumptions tend to vary among stakeholders and will become apparent when there are differing views on whether or not a project will lead to the desired change.
Risk are defined as the effect of uncertainty on expected results (outcomes). Developing a theory of change will also help identify any risks that would affect the achievement of outcomes. Note: Once risks are identified, suitable response strategies should be developed and managed throughout the life of the project.
Developing a theory of change combines a reflective process with the mapping of the logical sequence from inputs to outcomes in a project. The results chain provides the conceptual framework for articulating this logical sequence. A results chain depicts the relationships between inputs, activities, outputs, and the outcomes of a project.
The results chain addresses our need to explain manageable building blocks or steps that lead to one another, making it easier to sequence and identify changes during both analysis and planning. These steps also become the points at which ministry partners will measure whether or not the expected change is actually occurring throughout project implementation.
